[jhasper]

A hand I played recently got me thinking. When should you commit all your chips when all you have is a draw on the flop.

In order for it to be correct under any circumstances, the board must not be paired (unless the pair gives you trips and you are drawing to a full or better). If you are drawing at a flush or straight, it must be the nuts (or you must be very sure your opponent has no chance of making a better draw if your card hits). I would also not want to draw at the nut straight if the flop was two suited.

Now my thinking is that if you had an open ended straight draw or nut flush draw, your odds of making your hand by the river are 2:1. If you are heads-up and all-in, the pot is giving you 2:1. It would seem then that in this case it would probably not be correct to call an all-in bet, since you have zero EV from this play. In the long term you will break even at best.

But what about raising all-in? If someone bets at you, would it be correct to raise all-in? By being the aggressor, you have the added bonus that your opponent might fold. But how does your opponents holding impact your results. I looked at a worse-case scenario. Let's say your opponent flopped a set. Now your hand odds are far worse than 2:1. You do not have nine clean outs any more. You will still make the flush 1/3 of the time, but a number of those times the board will pair, giving your opponent a full or better. You only have six clean outs on the flop, making your hand odds more like 3:1. Now your play has negative EV since the set will beat the flush draw 75% of the time. It seems pretty clear that getting all of your money (or even a large portion) of it in on a draw is a bad idea.

However, there is an exception that I often make, although I never really stopped to think about the EV. That is when you have a draw to the nuts and two or more players are already all-in or almost all in. I have done this a number of times when I had the nut flush draw on the flop and there was a lot of action. I had AQ and bet from EP, I get raised, a player behind me goes all-in, and a player behind him calls. I move in, and the raiser calls. Four people are all in on the flop. I get my flush on the river. One opponent had flopped broadway, the other had a set of jacks, and the fourth guy was on a lower flush draw. I got a nice payoff there.

[chris]

in no limit hold 'em... generally, if the money isn't very deep then u might be getttin 2:1 but w/ deep money, u are getting close to 1.2:1 or 1.5:1 which aren't as nice odds... also, being the agressor only works w/ players who are marginally competent, callin-stations and fish will call w/ bottom pair, or even an under pair...

also u hafta consider overcards, if u have 2 of 'em u are even money vs top pair when u hold 2 overcards+flush draw... a straightflush draw is also even money vs top pair or even 2 pair....

just some more food for thought, but if u think u're oponent is good and will fold top pair or 2 pair... go all in... the number of times he folds will eventually make up for the times he calls, and u'l pretty much be on a free roll, because u went all in w/ his money

[johnf]

You would need 2 (or more) callers to get 2 to 1 on your money. One caller only gives you 1 to 1.

Of course, that is 1 to 1 plus what is already in the pot. As was pointed out only very shallow shacks can get you to 2 to 1.

For example, pre-flop pot is $5. Player A bets $5. If that puts you all-in, you get 2 to 1 for your money. Any amount over that, you are only getting 1 to 1. The only way you can get 2 to 1 on your money heads-up is if the pot before your opponent's bet is bigger than your stack.

Now your idea works perfectly when you have both a straight and a flush draw and you could actually be a slight favorite or slight underdog to win the hand. Then getting 1 to 1 is OK.

[jhasper]

Yeah I realized after I made the post that you are really only getting 1:1 (or slightly better) in most cases and not 2:1. You are correct, if you have an open ended straight draw and a flush draw your odds are about .85:1. The way I see it, to make an all-in call correct (assuming your hand is behind but you can draw to the best hand) you need at least 13 outs (1.08:1).

[norshvind]

someone drew to the flush against me last night, calling my all-in raise in a NL tourney.

I get dealt KcKs and raise double the blinds pre-flop from late position after the remaining two players limp in. SB folds and BB calls. Flop comes 2s7cJs. BB raises the pot and I go all-in with about even chips to him, guessing at best he paired up the J or has a draw. if hes got the draw Im assuming he'll fold. he thinks for awhile and then calls with:

Qs10s

"jeez why did he call!", I'm thinking. in any case, Im not too worried because even if he makes his flush on the turn I can still beat him with another spade on the river.

Turn comes: K

Trips! so now I have even more of an advantage because of the added possibility of Quads or the board pairing up to beat his unlikely spade on the river.

well you can guess what happened on the river. he gets his spade and Im out of there...

still, id play that hand exactly the same way if it happened all over again. oh well...

[ThomasR]

As usual, it comes down to odds and the odds aren't fantastic so I wouldn't have been looking at an all-in.

Norsh - that happens to everyone from time to time, though I'm glad you've no intentions on changing your style of play as a result. I see so many people claim they will never play a hand the same way again because of a little bad luck.